External Author |
Starting to See A Slowdown In Canadian Housing
Today, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing home sales fell 12.4% nationally from March to April 2021. Over the same period, the number of newly listed properties fell 5.4%, and the MLS Home Price Index rose 2.4%.
External Author |
Strong Canadian Economic Growth in Q4 and January
This morning’s Stats Canada release showed that economic growth in the final quarter of last year was a surprisingly strong 9.6% (annualized). The surge in growth in January was even more interesting, estimated at a 0.5% (not annualized) pace. If these numbers pan out, it means that Canada did not suffer a contraction during the second wave and ensuing lockdown.
External Author |
2020 Was a Blockbuster Year for Housing
Despite the fears leading into the pandemic last Spring, 2020 marked a record number of home resales as new listings lagged and prices climbed. December housing data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) today shows national home sales surged 7.2% month-over-month (m-o-m) at a time of the year when housing is normally slow. The chart below shows that resales were impressively above their 10-year average.
Kolbi Turner |
Canadian Housing Remained Strong in November
External Author |
Bank of Canada Confirms Commitment To Low Interest Rates
Kolbi Turner |
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
The September Labour Force Survey, released this morning by Statistics Canada, reflects labour market conditions during the week of September 13 to 19, six months after the onset of the COVID-19 economic shutdown. As Canadian families adapted to new back-to-school routines at the beginning of September, public health restrictions had been substantially eased across the country, and many businesses and workplaces had re-opened. Throughout the month, some restrictions were re-imposed in response to increases in the number of COVID-19 cases. In British Columbia, new rules and guidelines related to bars and restaurants were implemented on September 8. In Ontario, limits on social gatherings were tightened for the hot spots of Toronto, Peel, and Ottawa on September 17 and the rest of the province on September 19.
Kolbi Turner |
Canadian Housing Market Very Strong in July
Kolbi Turner |
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
The hand-wringing about the Q1 GDP data released today misses the point that the data were actually better than expected. The Canadian economy declined at an 8.2% annualized rate in the first quarter, less harsh than the earlier estimate by StatsCan of -10%. Of course, every sector of the economy was hit by the enforced shutdown, but not by nearly as much as most economists anticipated. For the month of March, the decline was 7.2%, less dire than the -9% earlier estimate.
Kolbi Turner |
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
A Recession Like No Other
The Canadian economy has been put in a medically induced coma. Never before in modern history have we seen a forced shutdown in the global economy so, not surprisingly, the incoming data for April is terrible. There is a good chance, however, that April will mark the bottom in economic activity as regions begin to ease restrictions.
Kolbi Turner |
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to ¼ percent. This unscheduled rate decision brings the policy rate to its effective lower bound and is intended to provide support to the Canadian financial system and the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic (see chart below).
Kolbi Turner |
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Markets shuddered in the face of a price war for oil and the economic fallout from the growing outbreak of coronavirus. Frightened investors poured into haven assets sending yields to unprecedented lows. Oil prices tumbled 30% after Saudi Arabia said it would cut most of its oil prices and boost output when Russia refused to join OPEC in propping up prices (see chart below). Foreign exchange markets convulsed, as the steep drops in oil and share prices overnight sparked a flight from commodity-linked currencies into the perceived safety of the Japanese yen and the US dollar.
Kolbi Turner |
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Global investors are selling stocks and piling into the safety of bonds in response to fears that the Wuhan coronavirus could disrupt global economic activity. Gold prices, another haven, have also risen. The Government of Canada 5-year bond yield traded this morning at roughly 1.35%, well below its nearly 1.70% level one month ago.
Kolbi Turner |
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Welcome Rebound in Labour Markets in December
For this notoriously volatile data series, it is particularly true that ‘one month does not a trend make.’ Following last month’s dismal employment report, job growth rebounded in December, erasing almost half of the earlier decline (even more if you exclude transitory factors in November). As well, the unemployment rate reversed much of its November spike, capping the second-best year of job growth since the recession and supporting the Bank of Canada’s view that the Canadian economy is resilient.
Kolbi Turner |
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
This morning, Stats Canada released the third quarter GDP figures indicating an expected slowdown to 2.0% growth (all figures quoted in annual rates), compared to a 2.9% pace in Q2. Over the first three quarters of this year, quarterly growth has averaged 2.2% which is down from the 3.0% annual growth recorded in 2017. The Canadian economy is at or near full capacity, so slower growth is not a bad thing.
However, while the headline growth of 2.0% was on trend, the details of the report are troubling.
Kolbi Turner |
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales declined for the second consecutive month in October, edging back by 1.6% month-over-month (m/m) and down 3.7% from year-ago levels. Year-over-year sales in October are now about in line with their 10-year monthly average (see chart below). Existing home sales activity has picked up from levels early this year, but it is still considerably below the boom days of 2016 and early-2017 before the foreign purchase tax was introduced in Ontario (in April 2017), the new OSFI rules were implemented (in January 2018), and Bank of Canada tightening gained momentum.
Kolbi Turner |
For most people a mortgage is the biggest debt we will ever carry and a home is the most expensive purchase we will ever make. This is why it is absolutely crucial to avoid mistakes that cause you to pay more than you should or even jeopardize your ability to qualify for a mortgage.
Kolbi Turner |
Wishing you a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from my family to yours. Happy New Year and all the best in 2018 and beyond!
Kolbi Turner |
At Kolbi Turner, I am proud of the work that I do. But, instead of telling you why my customers love me, I’ll let them do the talking! Here’s what some of my customers are saying about me lately:
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You’ve been searching the right neighborhoods to find your “that’s it!” house and picturing yourself making a home there. Dreaming about your future home is great, but there’s plenty to do before you start house hunting for your dream home.
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