• Canadian Housing Activity Slowed Again in September As Prices Continued to Fall

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    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    Orderly Housing Correction Continues

    There are many unusual aspects to the current housing correction, but fundamentally the most noteworthy is how orderly and non-chaotic it has been. Home sales have slowed, but so have new listings, so the price declines are more muted than we might have expected. This is not a housing collapse. It is a housing correction. We’ve seen little distressed selling, as most would-be sellers have lots of home equity and low mortgage rates–not anxious to buy new properties immediately. Moreover, with rents surging, most potential down-sizers aren’t keen to make that trade-off.

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  • Canadian Home Sales and Prices Fell Modestly in August

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    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    Housing Soften Again in August

    The full effects of the most recent rate hikes have not yet manifested. Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that the slowdown that began in March in response to higher interest rates continued in August, albeit at a slower pace. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems fell by 1.0% between July and August 2022. The pace of home sales last month was well below its 10-year moving average as buyers and sellers moved to the sidelines in response to rising mortgage rates and a reassessment of the outlook. While this was the sixth consecutive month-over-month decline in housing activity, it was also the smallest of the six.

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  • Finally Some Good News On The Inflation Front

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    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    It was widely expected that US consumer price inflation would decelerate in July, reflecting the decline in energy prices that peaked in early June. The US CPI was unchanged last month following its 1.3% spike in June. This reduced the year-over-year inflation rate to 8.5% from a four-decade high of 9.1%. Oil prices have fallen to roughly US$90.00 a barrel, returning it to the level posted before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This has taken gasoline prices down sharply, a decline that continued thus far in August. Key commodity prices have fallen sharply, shown in the chart below, although the recent decline in the agriculture spot index has not shown up yet on grocery store shelves. US food costs jumped 1.1% in July, taking the yearly rate to 10.9%, its highest level since 1979.

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  • Another Red-Hot Employment Report in Canada. Canadian Labour Market Is Much Too Tight–Adds To Inflation Pressure

    Kolbi Turner   |  

    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    Today’s Labour Market Survey for May 2022 showed that hiring continued at a rapid pace last month in an increasingly tight labour market, driving the jobless rate to another record low and fueling a sharp acceleration in wage gains. The economy added 39,000 jobs in May, surpassing expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 5.1%, far below the noninflationary rate of joblessness. Job vacancies are at a record high, and wage inflation accelerated to 3.9%, from the 3.2% pace posted in April.

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  • Canadian Home Sales Slow As Mortgage Rates Rise

    Kolbi Turner   |  

    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    Canadian Housing Market Feels The Pinch of Higher Rates Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that the slowdown that began in March in response to higher interest rates has broadened. In April, national home sales dropped by 12.6% on a month-over-month (m/m) basis. The decline placed the monthly activity at its lowest level since the summer of 2020 (see chart below). While the national decline was led by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) simply because of its size, sales were down in 80% of local markets, with most other large markets posting double-digit month-over-month declines in April.…

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  • Canadian Home Sales Begin to Slow in March. Canadian March Home Sales Posted Their Biggest Decline Since June

    External Author   |  

    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that rising interest rates were already dampening housing activity well before the Bank of Canada’s jumbo spike in the key policy rate in mid-April. National home sales fell back by 5.4% on a month-over-month basis in March. The decline puts activity back in line with where it had been since last fall (see chart below).

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  • Bank of Canada Hikes Policy Rate by 25 bps, and Sustains Current Bond Holdings

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    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    Bank of Canada Starts Hiking Rates, Signalling More To Come

    The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised the overnight policy rate target by a quarter percentage point in a widely expected move and signalled that more hikes would be coming. This is the first rate hike since 2018. In a cautious stance, the Bank announced it was continuing the reinvestment phase, keeping its overall Government of Canada bonds holdings on its balance sheet roughly stable.

    The Bank’s press release highlighted the major new source of uncertainty provided by the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia and suggested that it is a new source of substantial inflation pressure. Prices for oil, metals, wheat and other grains have skyrocketed recently. Moreover, this geopolitical distention negatively impacts confidence worldwide and adds new supply disruptions that dampen growth. “Financial market volatility has increased. The situation remains fluid, and we are following events closely.”

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  • Canadian Housing Markets Tighten, Pushing Price Higher

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    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    Wanted: Home Sellers

    Housing affordability remains a huge political issue, and with the Department of Finance working on the upcoming budget, no doubt measures to reduce home prices will be front and center. With an election coming this spring in Ontario, Premier Ford’s Housing Affordability Task Force has made recommendations to step up homebuilding. Still, Ontario’s mayors are balking at some of their proposals. The task force report from the calls for “binding provincial action” to allow buildings up to four stories tall and up to four units on a residential lot.

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  • Canadian Homebuyers Trying To Beat Rate Hikes

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    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    Housing Demand Outpaces Supply

    Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing-home sales rose 0.6% in November following the whopping 8.6% surge the month before. Sales could have been higher had it not been for the limited supply of homes for sale. Homebuyers are anxious to finalize purchases before the Bank of Canada hikes interest rates next year.Across the country, sales gains in Calgary, Edmonton, the B.C. interior, Regina and Saskatoon offset declines in activity in the GTA and Montreal.

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  • Canadian Home Sales Surge In October

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    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    Home Sales Surge in October

    Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing-home sales rose a whopping 8.6% in October, its most robust month-over-month pace since July 2020, when the first lockdown eased briefly. This was on the heels of a modest uptick in September–the first gain since March of this year.Sales were up month-over-month in about three-quarters of all local markets and in all major cities.

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  • Housing is Driving The Canadian Economy. Housing Drove the Economic Expansion in Q1

    Kolbi Turner   |  

    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    This morning’s Stats Canada release showed that the economy grew at a 5.6% annualized rate in the first quarter, after a revised 9.3% pace in the final quarter of last year. That was somewhat below economists’ expectations. Housing investment grew at an annualized 43% pace, by far the biggest impetus of the expansion.

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  • Housing Market Slowed in April as Renewed Lockdown Took Its Toll

    External Author   |  

    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    Starting to See A Slowdown In Canadian Housing

    Today, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing home sales fell 12.4% nationally from March to April 2021. Over the same period, the number of newly listed properties fell 5.4%, and the MLS Home Price Index rose 2.4%.

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  • Canadian Economy Ended 2020 On An Extremely Upbeat Note

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    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    Strong Canadian Economic Growth in Q4 and January

    This morning’s Stats Canada release showed that economic growth in the final quarter of last year was a surprisingly strong 9.6% (annualized). The surge in growth in January was even more interesting, estimated at a 0.5% (not annualized) pace. If these numbers pan out, it means that Canada did not suffer a contraction during the second wave and ensuing lockdown.

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  • Record December Canadian Housing Market Caps Record Year.

    External Author   |  

    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    2020 Was a Blockbuster Year for Housing

    Despite the fears leading into the pandemic last Spring, 2020 marked a record number of home resales as new listings lagged and prices climbed. December housing data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) today shows national home sales surged 7.2% month-over-month (m-o-m) at a time of the year when housing is normally slow. The chart below shows that resales were impressively above their 10-year average.

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  • Canadian Home Sales Hit a New Record For The Month of November

    Kolbi Turner   |  

    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    Canadian Housing Remained Strong in November 

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  • Bank of Canada Holds Rates At Effective Lower Bound–QE Continues

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    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    Bank of Canada Confirms Commitment To Low Interest Rates

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  • CANADA HAS RECOUPED THREE-QUARTERS OF PANDEMIC JOB LOSSES

    Kolbi Turner   |  

    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    Dr. Sherry Cooper

      DR. SHERRY COOPER

      Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

    Mortgage Brokers In Vancouver

    The September Labour Force Survey, released this morning by Statistics Canada, reflects labour market conditions during the week of September 13 to 19, six months after the onset of the COVID-19 economic shutdown. As Canadian families adapted to new back-to-school routines at the beginning of September, public health restrictions had been substantially eased across the country, and many businesses and workplaces had re-opened. Throughout the month, some restrictions were re-imposed in response to increases in the number of COVID-19 cases. In British Columbia, new rules and guidelines related to bars and restaurants were implemented on September 8. In Ontario, limits on social gatherings were tightened for the hot spots of Toronto, Peel, and Ottawa on September 17 and the rest of the province on September 19.

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  • RECORD-SETTING CANADIAN HOUSING MARKET IN JULY

    Kolbi Turner   |  

    Blog by Kolbi Turner

    Canadian Housing Market Very Strong in July

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  • LOCKDOWNS HIT CANADIAN Q1 GDP

    Kolbi Turner   |  

    Dr. Sherry Cooper

      DR. SHERRY COOPER

      Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

    Mortgage Brokers In Vancouver

    Near-Record Decline in Q1 GDP Better Than Flash Estimate

    The hand-wringing about the Q1 GDP data released today misses the point that the data were actually better than expected. The Canadian economy declined at an 8.2% annualized rate in the first quarter, less harsh than the earlier estimate by StatsCan of -10%. Of course, every sector of the economy was hit by the enforced shutdown, but not by nearly as much as most economists anticipated. For the month of March, the decline was 7.2%, less dire than the -9% earlier estimate.

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  • HISTORIC JOB LOSSES IN APRIL IN CANADA AS THE ECONOMY BOTTOMS

    Kolbi Turner   |  

    Dr. Sherry Cooper

      DR. SHERRY COOPER

      Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

    mortgage brokers in Vancouver

    Pandemic Batters Canadian Jobs Market

    A Recession Like No Other

    The Canadian economy has been put in a medically induced coma. Never before in modern history have we seen a forced shutdown in the global economy so, not surprisingly, the incoming data for April is terrible. There is a good chance, however, that April will mark the bottom in economic activity as regions begin to ease restrictions.

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