Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate By 25 bps to 4.25%

Bank of Canada Cuts Rates Another Quarter Point

Today, the Bank of Canada cut the overnight policy rate by another 25 basis points to 4.25%. This is the third consecutive decrease since June. The Bank’s decision reflects two main developments. First, headline and core inflation have continued to ease as expected. Second, as inflation gets closer to the target, the central bank wants to see economic growth pick up to absorb the slack in the economy so inflation returns sustainably to the 2% target.

Overall, the economy’s weakness continues to pull inflation down. However, price pressures in shelter and some other services are holding inflation up. Since the July Monetary Policy Report, the upward forces from prices for shelter and some other services have eased slightly. At the same time, the downward pressure from excess supply in the economy remains.

Tiff Macklem said today, “If inflation continues to ease broadly in line with the central bank’s July forecast, it is reasonable to expect further cuts in the policy rate. We will continue to assess the opposing forces on inflation and take our monetary policy decisions one at a time.”

The economy grew by 2.1% in the second quarter, led by government spending and business investment. This was slightly stronger than forecast in July. Together with the first quarter’s growth of 1.8%, the economy grew by about 2% over the first half of 2024. That’s a healthy rebound from our near-zero growth in the second half of 2023. The Bank’s July projection has growth strengthening further in the second half of this year. Recent indicators suggest there is some downside risk to this pickup. In particular, preliminary indicators suggest that economic activity was soft through June and July, and employment growth has stalled in recent months.

That makes this Friday’s Labour Force Survey data for August particularly important. We expect economic activity to slow in the third quarter to rough 1.3%, keeping the Bank in an easing posture through next year.

Article Courtesy: SherryCooper.com/category/articles/

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